Unlock Canada's Mining Potential

Summary

Historically, Canada has been a global centre for excellence in mining. Forty percent of all mining stocks are listed on the TSX, and generations of talent, expertise, and capital have been developed in the country.

However, over the last fifteen years, a combination of new restrictive permitting requirements and a dwindling investment ecosystem has severely hampered the country's ability to find and exploit new mining opportunities. 

The delays have led to a lack of belief in the investment community that Canada will produce the minerals we have. To exacerbate this already perilous market, non-market practices from China have softened mineral prices creating uncertainty in Western-based developments. More recently, the USA has made significant moves to support its mineral industry driving private capital south of the border. 

Right now, the world is looking for new mines to provide the raw materials (including rare earths and other minerals) essential to clean energy technologies, AI buildouts and geopolitical security. The question is, where will they get built?

Canada still has both the breadth of natural resources as well as the talent, skills and capital to be the world leader in this industry. However, to get there, the country must start building mineral projects again. This requires both permitting reform to provide confidence that projects will be built as well as a catalyst with short-term government financing mechanisms to bring back private capital.

Why Canadian Mines

Canada spent decades building the world’s most sophisticated mining ecosystem. The current model relies on a mix of small exploration startups (“juniors”) and large organisations (“seniors”) like Barrick or Teck. Historically, juniors raised money on the TSX Venture to hunt for deposits. When they found promising sites and de-risked the project (by technical advancements, securing permits etc), they would sell to seniors to build and operate the actual mines. This virtuous cycle led to Toronto becoming the undisputed global capital of mining finance. The TSX and TSX-V hosts over 1000 mining companies¹ — representing ~40% of all public mining companies worldwide² and the industry is an essential part of the Canadian economy contributing $117 billion (~4%) to national GDP³.

But the system is experiencing a critical tipping point and is at risk of breaking. In 2024, only 12 mining IPOs raised $13.79 million⁴. While in 2017, IPOs raised $947.3 million⁵. That's a 98.5% collapse. The total listed mining companies has fallen 30% from 1,600 in 2013⁶.

This problem started because permitting became impossibly slow. Today, after a junior finds a deposit, they have to navigate federal impact assessments, provincial reviews, fisheries approvals, water permits, and Indigenous consultations. These reviews often happen sequentially and many can be extended indefinitely. 

Today Canada averages 10-15 years to permit a new mine⁷. Ontario's Ring of Fire — one of the most exciting mining opportunities anywhere in the world — has been stuck for nearly 20 years⁸.

These timelines are profoundly uncompetitive. In the US many small projects receive their first permits within 6 months⁹. Northern European countries like and Sweden regularly have approvals complete within a couple years¹⁰. Leaders in the industry have confirmed publicly that these timelines have been a major reason for reduced investment. 

The issues created by this permitting environment then compounded to create adverse capital markets. Retail investors who historically funded juniors have left the market and since juniors generate no operating cash flow, they need constant capital access for drilling, studies, and salaries. Without funding, work stops and no new mines are discovered. 

Investors historically received returns through a combination of M&A (juniors bought by seniors) or, less often, a junior becoming a senior. Seniors though have the flexibility to develop globally and with a dwindling track record of juniors successfully permitting mineral projects in Canada, they have left. This has fundamentally broken the funding ecosystem, and without that ecosystem, returns have dwindled and investors have sought returns elsewhere. 

This is happening just at a moment where demand for critical minerals and new mines is expected to jump. The International Energy Agency projects critical minerals demand will double by 2040¹¹. Clean energy technologies and new AI datacentres rely more heavily on critical minerals. Electric vehicles need six times more minerals than conventional cars (over 200kg versus 40kg)¹². Wind plants need nine times more minerals than gas plants¹³. 

And not only is demand increasing but the supply of these minerals that exists remains dangerously concentrated leading to geopolitical risk. China refines 90% of rare earths¹⁴, 90% of graphite¹⁵, 77% of cobalt and just added new licensing restrictions to critical mineral exports to the United States¹⁶. In total the top three producers control over 86% of lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth production¹⁷. As the risks from this concentration are becoming clear, countries are scrambling for reliable partners with strong environmental standards and stable governance.

Canada has what they need. The country produces 60+ minerals from roughly 200 active mines¹⁸. It has proven lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth deposits. Quebec alone has 42 advanced critical minerals projects. Alberta hosts some of the world’s largest lithium resources. But deposits don't matter if they can't be developed. 

Mining is of huge economic importance to Canada. The sector employs over 400,000 people and each of those jobs on average creates 100s of thousands of additional supporting jobs¹⁹. For remote and northern communities in particular, mining provides economic lifelines. 

Other countries are looking to take advantage of the economic upside from new mining projects. Australia now captures more IPOs than Canada²⁰. Argentina's RIGI program attracted more than $30 billion across seven copper projects with 30-year tax breaks²¹. 

Canada needs to find solutions to reinvigorate its mining sector to take advantage of the resources, talent, and capital that are waiting to be put to work. 

Existing Solutions

Norway's One-Stop-Shop Permitting²²: Norway established a single point of contact with statutory authority to coordinate all relevant agencies. All environmental assessments happen in parallel instead of sequentially. 

Australia's Critical Minerals Facility²³: Export Finance Australia provides non-recourse loans covering up to 80% of project costs at concessional rates below commercial banks²⁴. The program has deployed over $2 billion supporting senior projects like Iluka's rare earths refinery and Arafura's NdPr oxide project²⁵. This financing bridges the gap where projects are technically sound but can't attract conventional capital.

What Must Be Done

Establish Conditional Pre-Approval for Strategic Projects. Open the Major Projects Office (MPO) to an ‘under review’ category for qualifying nation building critical mineral projects to unlock permitting support and financial instruments to move these project developments towards operations. This type of pre-approval will support the “crowding in of public capital” as Canada signals that it is open for business, as Minister Hodgson recently outlined at the International Energy Agency’s Energy Innovation Forum in Toronto. Projects that have met certain minimums such as preliminary feasibility studies with positive economics, defined permitting process roadmaps, first nations consultation underway etc., can be referred to the MPO as under review. 

As the MPO works with these projects to fast track their development, broader reforms to the permitting system in Canada will become clear. And, as projects in Canada get built, and permitting reform occurs, the need for the MPO to play a role in mineral projects will eventually be eliminated.

Launch a Coordinated Financing Mechanism. Australia’s Critical Minerals Facility (CMF) has deployed over $2 billion to build mineral projects and now 50% of the world’s lithium is mined in Australia²⁶. A model based on the Australian CMF could create a system for mineral projects to receive financial support including:  Non-recourse loans covering 80% of costs at 2-3% below commercial rates with 15-18 year terms; Cost overrun facilities at 15-20% of base loans with 50/50 cost sharing between government and sponsors; letters of credit for critical long lead equipment to remove supply chain bottlenecks; and 30-50% government equity stakes of 30 - 50%. 

These investments would be derisked by structuring disbursement based on key milestones: feasibility, permits, agreements, construction, commissioning. Offtake agreements can be used to ensure market demand. Indigenous Engagement Strategies can be mandated where applicable. 

Create a single-window portal with the MPO to coordinate funding mechanisms. Canada has many funding systems already in place, but achieving alignment and clarity can be complex. By coordinating the Canada Growth Fund, Strategic Innovation Fund, Infrastructure Bank, Export Development Canada, and regional agencies, Canada can get the capital deployed at the right time, to the right projects. Early entry into the new MPO ‘under review’ category will ensure projects are reviewed and tracked through their development and will simplify the final investment decisions to ensure more projects get the funding they need. This portal can also be used to establish a Single Point of Entry with export credit agencies who have funding programs that coordinate with partnerships with Canadian companies such as  US EXIM, Australia EFA, and Japan JBIC (through JOGMEC), among others, for international support. The end result, we build more mineral projects.

Common Questions

Won't fast-tracking compromise environmental protections? Environmental standards remain unchanged. Fast-tracking means eliminating duplicative reviews and sequential bottlenecks, not reducing substantive safeguards. Norway and Sweden maintain rigorous environmental requirements while compressing timelines through parallel processing. Projects still require full impact assessments, public consultations, and compliance with environmental law. The innovation removes unnecessary delays while preserving protections.

Why should taxpayers fund mining companies? The financing mechanism uses loans, not grants. Taxpayers receive interest payments, royalties, and potential equity upside. Australia's CMF has deployed $2 billion showing that similar mechanisms have already proven viability. Non-recourse structures limit government exposure to project assets only. The alternative is watching investment flee to Australia, Argentina, and Sweden while Canada's deposits remain undeveloped. The economic returns from royalties, taxes, and employment far exceed financing costs.

Don't these proposals favor industry over Indigenous communities? Mandatory Impact Benefit Agreements and signed Indigenous Engagement Strategies when developing on crown land are prerequisites for both fast-track permitting and financing. This creates incentives for genuine consultation and benefit-sharing rather than token gestures. Projects can't advance without First Nations support. The reforms enable communities that want mining development to see projects move forward, while maintaining full rights to say no to projects that don't meet their standards or offer adequate benefits.

Conclusion

Canada built the world's most sophisticated mining capital markets and pioneered the junior-to-senior development model. But 15-year permitting timelines and a market failure, from both Canadian and international reasons,  have broken this ecosystem. The world's demand for critical minerals is doubling by 2040 as clean energy deployment accelerates. Countries are paying attention. The USA, Australia, Sweden, and Argentina are implementing the exact reforms Canada needs. The country still has the resources, talent, and infrastructure to lead. It won't have them forever. Fix the system through conditional pre-approval with binding timelines. Launch targeted financing bridging the capital gap. Act now while the opportunity remains.

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