Goals

Launch a High-Speed Rail (HSR) project in the Toronto-Quebec City corridor that is operational fast, and arrives on-time and on-budget. This will transform the region and restore faith in Canada’s ability to complete big projects. Our targets:

• Have a high-value section of the corridor completed with passenger trips running within five years.
• Set a national vision with plans to produce high-speed rail connectivity across Canada.

Background and Motivation

Canadians have correctly grown skeptical of large government projects. 

• The Ottawa Confederation Line was initially projected to be complete in May, 2018. However, the line only opened over 15 months late in September 2019 and has experienced significant problems including: frequent train failures due to issues with doors, on-board computers, flat wheels, frozen track switches, and electrical problems with the overhead power supply¹.
• In general, Canadian transit project costs have exploded over the last several decades.
• The REM in Montréal was meant to cost $5.5 billion and be ready in 2020 but has ended up costing closer to $8 billion with the first segment only going live in 2023². 
• The Eglinton Crosstown LRT in Toronto was announced with a price tag of $4.6B and a completion date of 2020³. It is now 2025 the cost has ballooned to almost $13B and there is no official plan to open the line⁴.
• In general, Canadian transit project costs have exploded over the last several decades, routinely taking far too long and going way over budget:

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These mistakes have shaken Canadians’ belief in our government’s ability to get things done. But we must not stop building. Instead we need to build better. We created the Canadian Pacific Railway to cross the country, the St. Lawrence Seaway to open the Great Lakes to ocean shipping, hydroelectric projects that generate power for millions of people, and the Canada Arm to radically alter how we build in space. We can do this again. But building big isn’t enough, we must build it right: fast, on-time, and on-budget.

Last Tuesday the government announced a new High-Speed Rail (HSR) project to connect Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa. This is a needed project – the Toronto-Quebec City corridor is Canada’s economic backbone and this project could have dramatic results:

• Travel times between Toronto and Montreal would be cut from 5.5 hours to just over 3 hours.
• We would add $35 billion annually to Canada’s GDP and create over 50,000 jobs during construction.
• The route would make housing more affordable region-wide by creating new commuter hubs⁵.
• Building HSR lines will spur electrification with new transmission lines, substations, and grid improvements. China’s vast HSR expansion led to large upgrades to its ultra-high-voltage grid dubbed “bullet trains for power”⁶.
• Electrified high-speed trains are extremely energy-efficient. HSR can cut carbon emissions by 90% per passenger-km compared to driving or flying⁷.
• The corridor between Toronto and Montreal is one of the busiest for air and car travel in Canada with huge associated emissions and congestion costing both cities a combined many billions a year⁸. HSR can help solve this while increasing transit between the cities. After Spain opened its first high-speed line (Madrid–Seville), the share of travel by air between those cities plummeted from 40% to 13% and the share from cars fell from 44% to 36% while overall travel grew by 35%.
• By removing over 100,000 cars from the roads we will prevent 400 fatalities and 25,900 injuries annually.

But the current plan lacks the structure needed to execute effectively. Instead of learning from countries that build effectively we have doubled down on the mistakes that have led to our current problems. If left unchanged, we will repeat the failures of HSR boondoggles like the UK’s HS2 and California’s HSR projects, both of which have suffered from skyrocketing costs, endless delays and cancellations.

• Lack of technically competent authority for project management and design. Alto has been created as a new group to lead the project and it has put together a strong initial leadership team. However, its authority and role in oversight remain vague⁹. Will it lead design and project management or will it be merely an intermediary? How much will they invest in their in-house technical expertise? Successful HSR projects in Japan and France had strong, competent public agencies leading them. If Alto has to rely fully on private expertise that lacks the ability to enforce cost and timeline discipline, the project will drift into chaos. ‍
• A rushed commitment to the project without detailed planning. The most common cause of cost overruns for megaprojects is a lack of planning. As Bent Flybjerg puts it: “projects that start as an excited sprint turn into a long, slow, desperate slog that chews up time and money”¹⁰. This situation has become endemic in Canada: “many Canadian [transit] projects enter the bidding stage with 1% to 10% of design completed”, whereas other countries have 30-70%¹¹. The government has committed $3.9 billion over six years but there is no clear total project cost estimate or even a cost-per-km projection¹². To do this correctly will require more planning upfront. ‍
• Unclear approach to regulatory hurdles. There needs to be a serious discussion of how to manage land acquisition, indigenous consultation and permitting issues. These can be a major source of friction. A lack of proactive permitting strategy tends to manifest in: schedule delays from rejected permits and legal/regulatory challenges. Every month of delay tends to increase total project costs by almost 0.4%¹³ so it is essential to not lose time simply as a result of paperwork. The project must treat permitting as a way to move faster not a cost-center and the government must commit to aggressively building local buy-in and creating legal frameworks to accelerate the process. ‍
• Overreliance on multiple unproven consultants. The plan relies on a consortia of half a dozen major companies. Some like SNCF and SYSTRA have worked on similar projects in the past but many lack any HSR experience¹⁴. Recent Canadian infrastructure projects like the Eglinton Crosstown LRT show what can happen when a perfect storm of uncoordinated and complacent contractors and poor oversight lead to spiraling costs and missed deadlines.

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These mistakes undermined projects like the UK’s HS2 and California’s HSR. Instead, Canada must follow the model established by countries like Japan, France, and Spain. This means creating a centralized, competent authority to manage the project, using standardizing designs, working closely with local stakeholders to create buy-in, and streamlining approvals.

This project’s potential is clear but it risks becoming a fiasco further eroding public trust in government infrastructure projects. If we take advantage of learnings from global examples we can complete a high-speed rail network that is delivered on time and on budget, creating a huge economic opportunity for Canada and reinvigorating our faith in our ability to build.

Real-World Lessons

Countries with successful HSR networks have prioritized standardization, efficiency, and strong public oversight. While failed and delayed projects illustrate the consequences of mismanagement by consortium’s lacking accountability, and a lack of local buy-in.

Global HSR Success Stories:

• France (TGV): Built cost-effectively by using existing rail technology, standardized designs, and maintaining a clear national vision.
• Japan (Shinkansen): Maintained public ownership of design project management while working with private operators to ensure efficiency and cost recovery.
• China: Rapidly expanded its high-speed rail network by streamlining permitting and approvals.

Cautionary Insight from Transit Project Failures:

• HS2 (UK): Initially budgeted at £30.9B GBP, now exceeding £68B GBP, with key sections canceled due to high costs¹⁵. A victim of poor planning and changing political priorities.
• California High-Speed Rail: Originally estimated at $33B USD, now projected to exceed $100B USD¹⁶, with only a small section under construction due to legal challenges, land acquisition delays, and a failure to align local interests.
• Eglinton Crosstown LRT: Mismanagement and contractor disputes has left the project 5 years behind schedule and billions over budget, showing the risks of weak oversight and fragmented responsibilities.

What Needs To Be Done

• Establish a dedicated HSR authority and planning office. Consultants and private partners should be managed not depended upon. By empowering a single agency, with the authority to fully oversee HSR development, we can ensure accountability and technical leadership. The Alto executive team already has a wealth of previous knowledge. We should extend this by hiring teams of global experts from Japan and France. The office can then become the training ground to build homegrown talent that can lead HSR development across Canada.
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• ‍ Complete more planning with detailed upfront trade-offs. A lack of upfront planning leads to delays and change orders as issues are surfaced and decisions are made mid-project leading to delays and budget overrun. To avoid the pitfalls of over-optimism trade-offs must be decided and articulated clearly and early, to balance factors like speed versus frequency. We should have meticulous planning that benchmarks costs against similar lines in France, and Japan with enough confidence in our plan to cap contingency (incl. inflation) at 10% following global best practices.

• Focus on local buy-in and providing economic benefits. Securing strong local support is essential for preventing costly delays. We must engage stakeholders mile by mile, including indigenous partners, business owners and community leaders to ensure the project is seen as a positive force for growth. By working with provinces to align HSR development with zoning changes to maximize regional benefits. With this engagement we can be ready to make the hard decisions needed to deliver a complete plan that works.

• Streamline permitting and approvals. Permitting and approvals can be a major source of delays which in turn are one of the largest drivers of a project’s costs. We must align with all parties prior to submitting permits and environmental assessments to prevent unnecessary legal challenges. The government must legislate for project priority, create a streamlined permitting process, and set firm approval deadlines, as done in France and Spain. For the agency, permitting should be treated as a way to move faster, not as a cost center. By proactively submitting thousands of high-accuracy permits upfront the project can reduce errors, and delays that could otherwise compound.

• Leverage proven high-speed rail technology. Canada must use globally recognized HSR standards to ensure efficiency, interoperability, and cost-effectiveness. This includes: standardized track gauge of 1435 mm, electrification at 25 kV AC, and modern signaling systems such as ETCS or the Japanese ATC, with proven rolling stock from Alstom, Siemens, or Hitachi. For this first project new technology from unproven suppliers should be actively avoided. Countries like China, Spain, and South Korea all successfully developed HSR industries by using existing models before innovating.

• Standardize infrastructure development. Infrastructure such as stations, viaducts, and tunnels must follow simple standardized designs to lower construction costs. We must create a legal framework with provinces so that these designs receive automatic approvals. Municipalities should not be able to reject the development, but only make suggestions on where they are placed.

• Create a national strategy for high-speed rail. A well-planned high-speed rail system requires national vision to maximize scale and connectivity. Canada should commit to using this project as the foundation for a broader network. Priority follow-on projects could include Calgary to Edmonton, Windsor to Toronto, Winnipeg to Calgary, and Montreal to Halifax, ensuring more Canadians benefit from fast, efficient rail travel.

• Ensure transparency and build public trust. Maintaining transparency is essential to earning public trust, ensuring accountability, and making this project a point of national pride. Progress will be tracked through public dashboards and quarterly reports, allowing Canadians to see how funds are being used and milestones achieved. Success should be measured using clear benchmarked metrics.

Common Questions

• Why not just improve existing rail? Canada’s current passenger rail runs on freight tracks, limiting speed and frequency. A dedicated high-speed network is the only way to ensure fast, reliable service.
• Won’t this be too expensive? France, Spain, and Japan have consistently delivered high-speed rail for $25-$40M per km¹⁷. This would allow us to deliver a line from Toronto to Quebec city for less than $50B meaning we will fully pay back the investment in spurred economic output within just two years.
• What about environmental concerns? We will separate planning from environmental review, allowing for early, thorough assessments while keeping the project moving forward. HSR will reduce emissions, get cars off the road and planes out of the sky.
• How will the project deal with road and passenger crossings? HSR has been built in much more densely populated areas before. We can use grade separation—bridges and tunnels—to prevent disruptions. Where not feasible, modern signaling and traffic coordination will ensure smooth operations, following best practices from Japan, France, and Spain.
• Will this only benefit major cities? No. High-speed rail stimulates housing and job growth in mid-sized cities along the corridor, ensuring benefits are widely shared.
• Is this just a costly subsidy for rail travelers? No. HSR will unlock billions in economic growth, create tens of thousands of jobs, and reduce congestion and emissions, benefiting all Canadians.
• Can Canada afford this? Yes. The cost of inaction is higher. Road congestion, lost productivity, and air travel inefficiencies cost Canada billions every year. HSR is an investment in long-term prosperity. We can deliver this project on-time and on-budget and add $35 billion a year to GDP. $35 billion a year.

Conclusion

High-speed rail is the next great Canadian infrastructure project. It will redefine transportation, supercharge the economy, and prove Canada can build world-class infrastructure. If we follow best practices we can avoid this becoming a boondoggle and create a new system on-time, and on-budget putting Canada at the forefront of global transportation.